Refrigerant market favors little market reversal takes time

In 2009, the total global hydrogen fluoride production capacity reached 3.54 million tons, the output reached 1.432 million tons, and consumption was 1.258 million tons. Duplicate construction, rapid expansion of production capacity, hidden dangers of overcapacity have become more prominent, and dependence on foreign markets has become increasingly high. However, the development of the world economy has been sluggish this year, coupled with changes in the access standards for fluorinated workers. Domestic supply and demand and exports have also been affected by this and are gradually changing.

The situation of R22-related products is also in a downturn, and R125, which was affected by the downtrend of R22, fell once again and fell again. It is now entering a period of weak consolidation. According to a survey conducted by the air conditioning and refrigeration market, R410a orders are mainly air-conditioning manufacturers. Due to the existence of a series of unstable factors such as the US economy entering a recession, the continuous expansion of the European debt crisis and the stagflation of emerging markets in the international market, air-conditioner export The traditional advantage areas are facing the problem of insufficient demand. The unsurpassed PTFE in the downstream of R22 has not escaped this plague, and the market is gradually declining. It is currently in a consolidation phase (the export market of PTFE-made products is sluggish, and the market is watching with strong sentiment).

The air-conditioning market has been affected by this decrease in market demand (at present domestic household air conditioners use R22 as the main refrigerant, and the terminal maintenance market has a larger share of R22), which indirectly reduces the demand for R22, while the external economy The downturn caused the export volume of R22 to decrease, and the price of R22 raw material chloroform fell. As a result, the domestic chloroform market was affected, and the market price in the early period dropped significantly. According to the reporter of the Refrigeration Express, R22, another raw material AHF market, also experienced a significant downward trend. Under the double negative of the decrease in R22 demand and the decline in its raw material prices, the R22 market continued to decline. Although the manufacturers are striving to keep steady, but the market supply and demand are clear, the efforts of market participants do not help the "city."

Refrigerant prices continued to decline this month. At present, the economic environment is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the refrigerant market is not very good. The market reversal will take some time. If there are no major favorable factors, the refrigerant will still be weakly consolidating. There is still a possibility of a downside. The Sino-US exchange rate issue deserves attention. The development of trade between China and the United States will be the highlight of changes in export demand. It will be necessary to pay close attention to changes in the trade environment and whether foreign markets will experience “domino”. In short, the economic environment will be sluggish, and the October refrigerant market will be spent in a “beggar”.

Also affected by this economic environment is the auto market. The "Jinjiuyinshi" car market performance is also lower than market expectations, which will, to a certain extent, cause market participants to reduce their demand for R134A. In October of last year, R134A appeared to be the peak season for foreign purchases, but this year was also affected by the sluggish world economic development. The export market was in a downturn and the misfortune was not one-sided. The price of raw material trichloroethylene dropped sharply and the demand was weak. The market will continue to consolidate.