Traditional automotive parts supplier pattern will be overturned by 75% of electric vehicles or eliminated

Aikenberger pointed out that by 2030, 57% of cars produced each year will be cars with pure electric, plug-in hybrid or 48-volt electrical systems.

Beijing July 31 news, according to the Automotive News Network reported that for the traditional automotive parts suppliers, electric vehicles may prove to be extinct dinosaurs "meteorites."

According to a newly released report, by 2030, 75 of the top 100 suppliers in the industry will be eliminated unless they can develop their own electric vehicle-related business.

The author of the report and Paul Eichenberg, an analyst at Detroit, a car industry consulting firm, said: "Electrification is faster than most analysts predict. Many CEOs are very concerned about the quarterly earnings, but Did not see this industry trend."

Aikenberger pointed out that by 2030, 57% of cars produced each year will be cars with pure electric, plug-in hybrid or 48-volt electrical systems.

These purely electric, plug-in hybrid and mildly hybrid vehicles will create an annual market value of US$ 213 billion for the battery, engine and electronics industries.

This week automakers, suppliers, consulting firms and vendors gathered at the Management Briefing Seminars in the United States, an annual automotive industry summit hosted by the Ann Arbor Automotive Research Center. The participants all mentioned the elimination trend of this industry. Many participants acknowledged that the automotive industry is shifting from speed breakthroughs to self-driving cars.

Many people believe that the transition of autonomous driving technology and electrification coexists, both of which have led to radical technological changes.

Aikenberg, former vice president of strategy for Magna Powertrain and Magna Electronics, asked the question: How many companies will be eliminated as a result?

Self-driving cars will need to be equipped with technologies such as steer-by-wire, remote-by-wire and sophisticated on-board computers, which will greatly increase power consumption.

The gradual tightening of global carbon emissions regulations is also driving the trend of electrification. New emission standards for carbon dioxide in Europe and China will come into effect soon.

Eikenberger said that by 2020, the EU's Euro 6 standard will require the car to achieve a fuel efficiency of 57 miles per gallon, and by 2030, the proposed sexuality regulations may make this requirement further increase to 73 miles per gallon.

Automakers plan to meet this trend with electric, plug-in hybrids, and mildly hybrid cars.

48 Volt Mild Hybrid

Mild hybrid cars refer to cars that have been upgraded with 48-volt electrical systems, start-up functions, and regenerative braking. This technology is providing some suppliers with fast access to electrification.

Mild hybrid technology will increase the cost of vehicles from $1,000 to $1200 per vehicle (equivalent to a 30% increase in cost) and will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by half.

Eikenberger pointed out: "This is a good solution - especially for larger cars. Larger cars will adopt this technology, while smaller cars will use plug-in hybrid power. Or pure electric technology."

Some large suppliers are betting on this trend and reorienting themselves through investment. In 2012, Continental AG invested US$1.2 billion in the development of electric vehicle technology and added a 48 volt mild hybrid system to its product line.

This is part of a two-pronged strategy that assumes that automakers will electrify their regular cars in the short term and then gradually transition to electric and plug-in hybrids.

This investment achieved results in 2016 when Renault took Continental AG's 48-volt light hybrid system onto a landscape (Science) SUV. In the next two years, another five car manufacturers applied this system almost to their vehicles.

Kregg Wiggins, senior vice president of Continental's transmission division, stated: "This provides a cost-effective path for the steering of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. The current production of internal-combus vehicles is still nearing its peak. There is a lot of space."

By 2020 or 2021, Continental expects its electrical systems business to generate approximately $1.2 billion in sales, which is significantly higher than this year's $152 million. In order to promote this growth, the company announced in April that it will invest another US$351 million in 2021 to develop electric vehicle products.

Wiggins said the company is developing electric vehicle charging systems, electric axes, AC/DC converters, battery management systems, and automotive electronics.

The market for these parts is expected to thrive in the next decade or so, and Continental expects that the industry's annual sales will reach $2.3 billion by 2025.

Software development

Hybrid and electric vehicles will require a lot of specialized hardware from suppliers. However, the point of profit growth will be related software.

For example, Delphi Automotive is developing its ability to integrate 48-volt electrical systems with mild hybrid powertrains. Mary Gustanski, vice president of engineering at Delphi, believes that the key to this technology is to control the software that switches between electric and gasoline engines.