The third wave of consumption of the automotive industry output power is worth looking forward to

Driven by a series of national policies to encourage auto consumption, this year, the auto industry has become the leading industry in the domestic recovery. On July 2, Li Keqiang, vice premier of the State Council, stated at the opening ceremony of the “Global Think Tank Summit” that the emphasis was placed on expanding consumption in housing and transportation and promoting consumption upgrading. Analysts believe that in the future, the central government will continue to introduce policies to expand auto consumption. As one of the two major engines of “ preserving growth and expanding domestic demand,” the auto industry will set off a new round of consumer climaxes.

More than 10% of economic pull

At the beginning of this year, under the impact of the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy was facing a severe challenge of sluggish external demand and sluggish domestic demand. For this reason, the central government made decisive decisions and proposed the “Top Ten Industrial Revitalization Plan”. It is no accident that the automotive industry is ranked first among the top ten revitalization plans.

Give full weight of the automobile industry in the position in the national economy, by its long industrial chain and position in the demand structure of the decision.

From the perspective of the industrial chain distribution, the automotive industry and steel, non-ferrous metals, rubber, petrochemicals, plastics, glass and other industries enjoy solidarity with each other in the upstream raw materials segment; in the midstream production and manufacturing sectors, the automotive industry and machinery and electronics, CNC machine tools, automated production lines and other industries Benefits related; to the downstream links, the automotive industry is inseparable from the logistics industry, finance, insurance, sales, advertising and other service industries. In addition, the growth of car ownership will also drive investment demand for expressways, which will drive the development of infrastructure industries such as cement and building materials.

From the perspective of people's demand structure, after satisfying the basic needs of “eat” and “wear”, the demand of “walking” has risen to the key position of improving the living standards. Cars are the most convenient and personalized product of all the "travel" methods, and they are also the products that best meet this demand.

A car as a final consumer product must consist of at least 20,000 parts. The auto industry not only has a large amount of investment, but also has a high demand for economies of scale. What's more important is that the intermediate investment and the transfer of value are more important. In other words, the auto industry's investment has a multiplier effect. According to a research report of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the automobile industry is a 1:10 industry, that is, the output of a unit of the automobile industry can drive the output of the entire national economy to increase by 10 units. Such a huge driving role is unmatched by any other industry.

According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, in 2002, the total output value of the automobile industry in China exceeded the trillion mark, which was approximately 2% of the national GDP; by 2008, the proportion of the total output value of the automobile industry in GDP had exceeded 8%. Upstream and downstream industries led the automobile industry to pull the national economy far more than 10%.

The leading role of the automotive industry in related industries has already been seen. Take the steel industry as an example. According to the data provided by CITIC Construction, the orders for automotive panels in Baosteel's hot-dip galvanizing products in January 2009 were only 23,000 tons; in May, orders for such products have risen to 90,000. Ton. In addition to the increase in auto board orders, the prices of Baosteel’s cold-rolled sheet and galvanized products have remained basically stable.

Policy stimulus sparks consumer wave

Since the beginning of this year, the country has adopted a series of policies to encourage automobile consumption, such as fuel tax reform, the purchase tax for small-displacement vehicles, the automobile to the countryside, retirement subsidies, and trade-in replacements. From January to May, domestic car sales reached 4,956,800 units, an increase of 14.29% year-on-year. The domestic auto market is gradually warming up and re-entering the growth track.

Xu Liuping, chairman of Changan Automobile, stated that the country has introduced policies to support the automobile market from various aspects such as taxation and fiscal, and in particular, the country issued a clear signal to encourage the expansion of auto consumption, which has played a decisive role in the domestic auto market to stabilize.

While the major automobile markets such as the United States, Japan, and Europe are in recession, only the Chinese auto market is thriving. The Chinese government's policy measures to stimulate the consumption of small-displacement vehicles coincide with current China's auto consumption structure. Optimists believe that the Chinese auto industry will usher in a new wave of consumption. Frank Gong, managing director of JPMorgan Chase, said on many occasions that the third wave of Chinese auto industry has arrived and it is expected that this wave will continue for 4-5 years.

Gong Fangxiong said that China's auto industry has experienced two waves in the past decade. The first time it was from 2002 to 2003, it was dominated by residents of first-tier cities. In cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the disposable income of residents reached a certain level, and cars began to enter homes on a large scale. However, since the total population of first-tier cities adds up to only about 50 million, the first wave did not last long. At that time, the auto stocks turned 2-3 times.

The second wave started with SARS. The residents of second-tier provincial capitals reached a certain level of income and joined the car owners. There are many second-tier cities and the total population is close to 250 million, so the second wave lasted for 4 years until the end of the 2008 international financial crisis. During this period, the price of automobile stocks has increased by 5-6 times.

Gong Fangxiong believes that the Chinese automobile industry is about to usher in the third wave of consumption, and residents in third-tier cities are starting to buy cars. Last year, China’s per capita national income was more than 3,000 US dollars, and the per capita income of third-tier cities could reach around 4,000 US dollars. Judging from international experience, 4000 US dollars has passed the threshold of car purchase. The population of third-tier cities in China is about 300 million, so it is expected that the third wave will continue for 4-5 years.

Yi Junfeng, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, said that the rapid growth of car sales in the first half of this year has a policy stimulus factor. In the second half of the year, with the weakening of the policy stimulus effect and the increase in oil prices, the sales volume in individual months may show signs of decline. However, the fundamental factor supporting car demand is the change in disposable income per capita. It is expected that the sales of automobiles in China will be different in 2009 and 2010 respectively. It reached 10.8387 million vehicles and 126.205 million vehicles, with sales growth rate of 15.76% and 16.44% respectively.