The market size will exceed RMB 1 trillion, and the demand for carbon fiber in the automotive lightweight industry will be analyzed

Carbon fiber (abbreviated as CF) is a new type of fiber material containing high-strength and high-modulus fibers with a carbon content of 95% or more. Carbon fiber "hard and soft", both the dual properties of carbon materials and fibers, the quality of lighter than steel, magnesium, titanium, aluminum, but the strength, modulus is higher, and has corrosion resistance, high temperature, friction The high characteristics are praised by the industry as "black gold."

Carbon fiber not only has important strategic applications in the field of defense and military industry, but also can play an important application that can not be ignored in civilian use.

Excellent mechanical properties but high cost

(Note: Specific strength is the strength of a material divided by its apparent density, also known as the strength-to-weight ratio. The higher the specific strength, the lighter the material used to achieve the same strength; the specific modulus is the ratio of the modulus to the density. The greater the amount, the greater the rigidity of the material.Simple understanding, the higher the strength of the filament, the less likely to be broken.The higher the modulus, the more "strength" of the material and not easy to bend.Data Source: "Car Carbon fiber composite material properties and molding process", Shunze (Jiaxing) Stodk)

From the basic mechanical performance indicators, even general-purpose carbon fiber composites are far superior to high-strength steels, aluminum alloys, titanium alloys, and magnesium alloys. The high-strength and high-modulus carbon fiber composites have better specific modulus and specific strength than general-purpose ones. The only obstacle is that the current high-end carbon fiber composite materials have high technological content and extremely complex production processes, resulting in higher costs than the above-mentioned other types of materials.

With the extension of the industry chain, the added value has doubled

Carbon fiber is not usually used as a reinforcing fiber material alone, but is made into a terminal carbon fiber composite material. The complete carbon fiber industry chain consists of a complete manufacturing process from raw silk preparation to end application. From the perspective of production, it can be simply summarized as raw silk production, oxidation carbonization, intermediate materials, composite materials, and terminal applications.

Source: Hengshen Public Transfer Specification, Shunze (Jiaxing) Stoke

In the entire carbon fiber industry chain, each deep processing link has high technical barriers and the production process is extremely complex. Therefore, the added value is high, and the downstream, the higher the added value of the product.

Leading a lightweight trend, China's future demand has great potential

Automotive industry: If costs drop, trillions of new blue oceans will be opened.

In the short term, it is difficult to further enhance the real energy. Under the premise of energy efficiency, vehicle weight reduction has become the realistic first choice for vehicle energy conservation and environmental protection. Carbon fiber has outstanding advantages such as higher specific modulus and specific strength, greater weight reduction potential, and better safety, and it has better mechanical properties than steel, magnesium aluminum alloy, etc. It is the best choice for automotive lightweighting without considering the cost. .

The use of carbon fiber composite materials to reduce weight in automobiles has gradually begun to be applied in foreign countries. Well-known manufacturers represented by BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Toyota, and Volkswagen have begun to deeply intervene in the carbon fiber industry, gradually adding carbon fiber. Composite materials are applied to different models.

The application of carbon fiber composite materials in the domestic automotive industry is still in its infancy. Domestic car makers represented by Chery, Qoros, and Beijing Automotive Group began to use carbon fiber composite materials in their new energy electric vehicles. In the first half of this year, BAIC and Kant Plastics signed China's first mass production orders for carbon fiber auto parts, which became the beginning of China's carbon fiber production for mass production.

Although the prospects are very good and the potential demand is huge, the large-scale application of carbon fiber composite materials to the automotive industry will inevitably impose more stringent requirements on the preparation technologies and manufacturing processes of all aspects of the carbon fiber industry chain. The low cost is the reason for its successful business. Application of the inevitable way out. At present, the cost of carbon fiber composite materials for automobiles is as high as 400 yuan/kg. It is only applicable to relatively niche markets such as sports cars and luxury cars, and the overall penetration rate is low. To reach the mass market such as general models, the cost is reduced to 60~ 100 yuan / kg, it has realistic feasibility.

According to the calculation of national automobile weight reduction requirements, the number of domestic automobiles and electric vehicles is expected to reach 30 million and 6 million by 2025. According to the standards of 25% and 50% weight reduction, the demand for carbon fiber will reach at least 100,000 tons. . If further breakthroughs are made in future technologies and processes, according to carbon fiber and carbon fiber composites, the price will be 100,000 yuan/tonne and 200,000 yuan/tonne (the current cost is only 120,000 yuan/ton and 32 million yuan/ton respectively). By 2025, Market space can reach 10 billion!

(Note: Assume that each vehicle uses 100Kg of carbon fiber instead of aluminum alloy (150Kg). Each vehicle has a mileage of 20,000 kilometers per year, calculated at a price of 7 yuan/kg (97# gasoline) if the price of carbon fiber can be reduced to 60. RMB/kg (Toray's T700 grade carbon fiber price is about RMB 150/Kg), and its economy will be comparable to that of aluminum alloy (RMB 40/kg).

The domestic auto carbon fiber composite materials are still in the test stage, while foreign countries have begun to vigorously promote the demand gradually increased. If the cost is further reduced in the future, carbon fiber will inevitably gradually increase the penetration rate of the automotive market and gradually become popular. The huge automotive market demand will usher in an outbreak.

If:

(1) In the future, carbon fiber and carbon fiber composite materials will continue to drop to 40,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton;

(2) The average use of carbon fiber composite materials per vehicle accounts for 10%;

(3) In 2016, China's auto production and sales volume will reach 28 million, and the annual automobile production will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 5% over the next ten years (compared with a compound growth rate of 14.09% for 2005-2016), and carbon fiber composites will start from 2021. With the gradual penetration of materials, by 2025, the market size of carbon fiber and carbon fiber composite materials will exceed one trillion yuan!