The first annual sales of the automotive industry exceeded 10 million units, and the situation is uncertain next year

Compared with other domestic industries, China's auto industry this year is a grand occasion. No, next week, various types of events will be held around the country to celebrate the annual sales of Chinese automobiles that have broken through 10 million cars and celebrate the sales of individual auto companies that have exceeded millions. Maybe at the end of this year, everyone will celebrate the next one - China will replace the United States and become the world's largest consumer car market.

But will these be short and dazzling fireworks? After a big rejoicing, will it become the "second iron and steel industry" and be given a yellow card with excess capacity?

South SAIC and North FAW to celebrate the game

Undeniably, the Chinese auto industry has developed rapidly since the founding of the country. . Dong Yang, executive deputy chairman of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, predicts that “in mid-October, the production and sales of automobiles are expected to exceed 10 million vehicles, and it is likely to exceed 12 million vehicles throughout the year.” This indicates that the Chinese auto industry has successfully completed the national “car” at the beginning of the year. The Industrial Restructuring and Revitalization Plan puts forward the target of more than 10 million vehicles for the 2009 national automobile production and sales. The industry even expects that the Chinese auto industry will form a new pattern with three pillars: Japan and the United States.

Major auto giants see this as an opportunity to show their strength and let the outside world know themselves again. On October 15, SAIC Motor’s foremost subsidiary, Shanghai Dazhong, announced that its 500th sedan, the main mid-range Superb Hao Rui, was off the assembly line of Shanghai Volkswagen Factory No. 3, which was the earliest stepping into cumulative production. 10,000 Chinese cars at the threshold of the car. The FAW Group, which is located in Changchun, is not to be outdone. The name of the eldest son of the Republican Automobile is played, and the grand ceremony of celebrating the breakthrough of 10 million will be carried into the arms. The time is October 20; place on the J6 production line of FAW Jiefang, because the first automobile manufactured in China is the FAW Liberation CA1; the organizers are the China Automobile Industry Association, the China Automotive Engineering Society, the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade. Industry clubs and so on.

People with discerning eyes can see that SAIC and FAW Group are the two biggest auto giants in China. To be honest, according to the current situation, the eldest son of FAW Group is obviously not as SAIC Motor Group. If the latter is old, even the youngest are unable to qualify, but with only 25-year-old Shanghai Volkswagen, 12-year-old Shanghai General Motors, etc., established as China's largest auto group. The disparity between the two sides is obvious. The first is sales performance. In the first three quarters of 2009, its market share was as high as 20.03%, and its sales reached 1,935,489. In contrast, the FAW Group’s eldest son’s FAW Group sold 1,381,288 vehicles, with a market share of 14.30%. The second is profitability. FAW Group has come up with a long history of trucks, while SAIC Group has put out a Shanghai Volkswagen sedan, apparently with the former being a senior and the latter showing profitability. At least in China, the average profitability of most commercial vehicles is lower than that of mid-to-high-class cars. What's more, Shanghai Volkswagen has already formed a dual-brand structure covering the mainstream. In addition, Shanghai Volkswagen is accelerating its sales of millions. Its breakthrough of the first million vehicles lasted 13 years, followed by the process of breaking 100 to speed up. The number of vehicles exceeded 2 million units in June 2002 and exceeded 3 million units in July 2005. In January 2008, it exceeded 4 million units. In October 2009, it exceeded 5 million units. In particular, the fifth one million units took only one year to complete. .

Although not the same heavyweight as SAIC and FAW Group, Changan Automobile, the fourth-largest auto group in China, still finds a new model of celebration. On October 22, the forum for electric cars was held in Chongqing, which may be the direction of Changan Automobile to catch up with the former.

It is difficult to grow at high speed next year

When everyone was concerned about the speeding development of this year, many friends began to worry about the next year. Whether China's auto industry will become second in steel next year, the steel industry is also expected to develop rapidly. However, the recent worries about the overcapacity of steel have been heard all over the place. Experts said that if Chinese steel companies still do not cut production, apparent consumption growth will exceed 20%, which is equivalent to the annual increase in consumption of billions of tons of steel.

Yesterday, during a chat with a friend, he said, "If we do not extend this year's preferential policies for supporting the auto industry, it is estimated that the Chinese auto industry will experience major shocks."

In fact, this has already set a precedent overseas, and the European and American auto market has returned to a slump in September. In September, the sales of new cars in the US car market were 746,000, a sharp drop of 22.7% year-on-year. In Europe, new car sales in Germany fell by nearly 50% in September. This is because Germany and the U.S. government's "replacement for old" program has run out of subsidy funds and has not introduced new stimulus policies. According to this situation, if China does not continue its preferential policies for automobiles in 2010, it may embark on the same road as the German and US auto consumption situation.

However, this does not mean that policy is a panacea. More people are worried that even if it continues, it is expected that the growth rate will be lower next year than this year. After all, this year was quickly picked up from the bottom.

Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first nine months of this year, China's total automobile production and sales were 9,166,700 and 9,669,700 respectively, an increase of 32.01% and 34.24% year-on-year, which exceeded the sales volume of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars doubled 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.155 million vehicles and 7.241 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 37.93% and 41.90% year-on-year, with the highest growth rate ever recorded.

Indeed, after China's auto sales have exceeded the 10 million mark, it is quite difficult to say that the average annual growth rate is 30%. This is like a fat person can not run faster. Since we can't run faster, then we can take the opportunity to transform it into a quality long-distance running.