Subsidy to zero, the survival of the fittest in the new energy automotive industry has been opened

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Circular on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion of the Use of Complete New Energy Vehicles." This also means that the new government subsidy for new energy vehicles will formally land in 2018.

Although the subsidy retreat in the New Deal was expected as early as possible, the 2018 New Deal has more complicated regulations for subsidy requirements. It no longer only determines the subsidy amount according to the mileage, but introduces new energy such as battery energy density and energy consumption coefficient. Claim".

Looking down, the New Deal will increase the subsidy starting point of pure electric vehicles to a range of 150 kilometers. It seems that there is no impact on car prices, but according to the New Deal's battery energy density requirements and energy consumption factor, it will be found that many car companies not only subsidize the Decline, even directly to zero.

Taking Beiqi New Energy as an example, the EC series of its new energy model is its absolute sales force. According to the New Energy Subsidy New Deal in 2018, the subsidies for its EC series models have fallen severely, and even several models have been directly returned to zero. It is not difficult to foresee that BAIC's new energy business will be severely tested.

According to the official data of Beiqi New Energy, the sales of BAIC new energy in 2017 was 103,100 units, which won the domestic pure electric vehicle sales championship. Among them, the Beijing Automotive New Energy's EC series is the absolute sales force, in 2017 the BAIC EC series of pure electric vehicles sales of 78,100 units, accounting for 75.68% of total sales.

At the same time, the Beiqi EC series models are also relatively low-end models, priced at about 150,000 yuan, and according to the 2017 subsidy policy, the actual terminal price of the Beiqi EC series is around 50,000 yuan, and after the subsidy was less than 50,000 yuan. When the EC180 went public, it also attracted a lot of attention.

In fact, the strategy of Beiqi New Energy does indeed open the market quickly, but after subsidizing the implementation of the New Deal, the Beiqi New Energy EC series will be significantly affected.

Based on the "New Energy Vehicle Model Catalogue for Exemption from Vehicle Purchase Taxes" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2017, Automobile K Line will count all the models of Beiqi New Energy that appeared in the 2017 Catalogue, and will use its subsidies to the New Deal in 2018. Changes in subsidies were calculated.

According to the data, all BAIC New Energy vehicles appeared in the Catalog in 2017. Except for the EU400 subsidy growth, the subsidy for other vehicles has declined to varying degrees, while some of the EC180, EU300, and EV160 models have even been subsidized.

In particular, the EC series, the EC180 that appeared in the 2017 Catalogue, involved five models. Three of them were not subsidized by the New Deal and the remaining two were significantly reduced. The reason for the subsidy return to zero is because it does not meet the requirements of the 2018 New Deal and the “mass energy density of a pure battery electric vehicle battery system is not lower than 105Wh/kg”.

According to the forecast of experts, in 2018 China's new energy vehicles will still have a relatively rapid development, especially since the 2018 subsidies policy was announced earlier, which will also help the continued sales of new energy vehicles. The New Deal is also The company has arranged a "transition period."

According to the New Deal subsidy in 2018, from February 12 to June 11 is the transitional period. During the transitional period, new energy passenger cars will be subsidized at 0.7 times the current new energy subsidy policy, and new energy trucks and special vehicles will be subsidized at 0.4 times. Subsidy standards for fuel cell vehicles remain unchanged.

In other words, companies still have four months to adjust their products according to the New Deal to obtain subsidies. But this adjustment may not be able to solve the problem by adding some battery packs. For example, Beijing Automotive New Energy's EC series part does not meet the requirements for battery energy density. I am afraid that the battery pack with higher energy density may need to be replaced, while the battery pack with higher energy density is required. It means more expensive prices and higher costs.

This will not be a burden for the EC series positioning lower-end pure electric vehicles, and it will not be replaced. These originally rely on "low-cost" models to win, and after losing subsidies, I am afraid they will also face more serious problems. The competitive situation.

According to the previously announced 2018 target of Beiqi New Energy, its sales target in 2018 will be 150,000 units, with a revenue target of 19 billion yuan, and it will strive to become China's pure electric vehicle market share first place. At the same time, when Beiqi New Energy is about to be listed on the market independently in 2018, a good performance is also necessary.

The implementation of the subsidy New Deal is a big test for BAIC New Energy, and the New Deal has further highlighted the hidden dangers of BAW's new energy product structure. With more and more car companies launching entry-level pure electric vehicles, and the emergence of new joint venture products such as Jianghuai Volkswagen, the pressure of BAIC New Energy will increase.

This is obviously not a good thing for Beijing Auto New Energy, which has just been listed in the backdoor of the A-share market.

However, the days of JAC are also not easy. JAC's sales of new energy vehicles have performed well, but the pillars are also on the low side. In the new policy of subsidies in 2018, they also face a situation of substantial decline in subsidies or even zero, which is the case for the traditional car business. As the Jianghuai Automobile continues to decline, it may have a greater impact.

The survival of the fittest in the new energy auto industry has also been opened. It was probably impossible to live on low-cost, low-end models such as minicars and small cars. Those traditional businesses are in crisis and they hope that the days of pure electric vehicles making money easily will end. .