Newly banned refrigerant R22 project by 2013

Li Dazhi, a member of the China Fluorine Silicon Association Expert Committee, disclosed to the reporter recently that the industry’s concern for the "HCFC-containing hydrocarbon production industry access standards" has been formulated and is expected to be introduced in the near future. According to the spirit of the document, before 2013, China will stop the approval of the new refrigerant R22 project. Although the R142 project can be newly constructed, the scale must be more than 5,000 tons. The recent R22 price increase has reached 30%.

R22 faces limited production

“Although it is stipulated that new construction will be banned before 2013, it will not be approved after 2013.” An industry source told this reporter.

Just last week, the Ministry of Environmental Protection announced that China officially launched the HCFC phase-out operation. According to the "Montreal Protocol", China needs to freeze the production and use of HCFCs at the average level for the two years from 2009 to 2010 on January 1, 2013, and then reduce it by 10% at the freezing level in 2015 and realize it by 2030. Complete elimination except maintenance and special purpose.

In this regard, Li Dazhi stated that the ban on new construction of the R22 project means a reduction in supply, but demand is still strong in the short term, and R22 itself can be used as a substitute for R410A. Therefore, the outlook for at least the next three to five years is still promising.

The reporter also learned from the industry that due to two recent accidents in the Meilan plant within one month, the entire plant of the chloroform plant was stopped, which seriously affected the supply of R22; Dongyue Group stopped and repaired according to plan, which is expected to last for half a month, resulting in R22 price Rebound continuously. According to institutional data, the current price of R22 has rebounded from the lowest point of 13,500 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton, with the highest quotation reaching 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short-term gain of nearly 30%.

Previously, the price of R22 plummeted for two consecutive months.

Fluorite prices will rise overall

Compared with the slump in the downstream refrigerant market, the upstream fluorspar industry has a limited price drop due to the existence of consolidation expectations.

“This is at first attributed to policy guidance, because there is a strong expectation of integration of fluorite resources. In addition, demand also has a certain traction, because the refrigerant enters a replacement period, there has been explosive growth, once the downstream prices rise, the market will Will be hype." A high-level person involved in the formulation of the fluorine chemical industry policy told this reporter.

He pointed out that predicting the price change of fluorite can start from the following aspects. The first is supply. At present, domestic production accounts for only 60% of the world's total, and the recent expansion of Mexico's mines is very fast. It is expected that the inflection point of the expansion of the world's fluorite structure will be 2013.

Secondly, from the perspective of demand, he believes that the fluorite downstream project is expected to be put into production in 2012. After that, the production rate will slow down and the turning point of growth will appear in 2012.

"Third, fluorite prices also have hype factors." The above-mentioned sources said that once the real economy expects a reversal, speculators will reduce their inventory six months in advance. This inflection point will occur in 2012.

The last is the exchange rate effect. He believes that with the gradual appreciation of the renminbi, it will eventually have an impact on such high proportion of exports as fluorite.

In spite of this, he believes that the "12th Five-Year Plan" fluorite prices may still rise overall, peaking at RMB 3,500/tonne to RMB 4,000/tonne, and then gradually decreasing, with an average price level of RMB 2500/tonne-3000. Between yuan/ton.