New energy automotive industry chain is facing reshuffle: energy management will implement double integration

The “Measures for the Concurrent Management of the Average Fuel Consumption of New Energy Vehicles and New Energy Vehicles by the Passenger Vehicle Corporation (Draft for Solicitation of Opinions)” recently released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that it is clear that car companies will implement dual-integration management in parallel and the evaluation system will reduce energy consumption. The efficient passenger car tilts.

The relevant person in charge of the JAC Automobile said in an interview with reporters recently that the new management of double-point management is in line with the direction of the company's development and will maintain the existing strategic goals of the new energy vehicle as the company's strategic core business segment.

The “Measures for the Concurrent Management of the Average Fuel Consumption of New Passenger Vehicles and New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Solicitation)” (“Consultation Draft”) published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently announced that it is clear to implement double-integration parallel management for car companies. The evaluation system will be tilted toward low-energy, high-efficiency passenger cars. According to industry insiders, according to the consultation draft, car companies with high proportion of new energy vehicles in the company's total production will gain greater advantage, and models with high cruising range, low power consumption, and lightweight body will benefit.

Points can be carried forward

According to the exposure draft, passenger car companies will evaluate the average fuel consumption of passenger cars and the proportion of new energy vehicles. Among them, the fuel consumption points of traditional passenger vehicles are still carried out according to the relevant ratios specified in "Evaluation Methods and Indicators for Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption" (referred to as "Evaluation Methods and Indicators") implemented on January 1, 2016. According to the evaluation method and indicators, the target fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of passenger cars will reach 6.0L, 5.5L and 5.0L respectively from 2018 to 2020; and the ratio of new energy vehicles for passenger car companies will reach 8 in 2018 to 2020. %, 10%, 12%.

The Exposure Draft clearly stipulates that new energy vehicles with positive points can deduct the same amount of average fuel consumption negative points. In addition, new energy vehicles' positive points can be freely traded between passenger car companies. Passenger vehicles with average fuel consumption negative integration can use the average fuel consumption carried forward by the company, positive points for new energy vehicles generated by the company, positive points for the average fuel consumption transferred, and purchases from other companies. The new energy car is scoring positively to zero.

At the same time, the draft of the Opinions proposes that passenger car companies that have paid negative credits for new energy vehicles that have not been compensated according to the present Measures, suspend the production or import of some models of traditional energy passenger vehicles until the production or import volume of traditional energy passenger vehicles in that year. The decrease in the previous year is not less than the amount of unpaid negative points.

Some analysts believe that compared with the September 2016 version of the “Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Corporate Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Integrity,” the new version of the policy name cancels the “provisional” word, which means that the policy will become long-term after implementation. Established policy. At the same time, the new version of the point-of-questioning solicitation commentary has been converted from the simple voyage mileage corresponding points to the calculation formula; new energy vehicles will introduce power consumption indicators based on vehicle weight, and the smaller the power consumption, the higher the integral multiple.

Car prices are not expected

Under the new dual-point management system, each listed company can be described as “several happy families” and the new energy auto industrial chain may change. According to the Exposure Draft, car companies with a high proportion of new energy vehicle production as a percentage of the company’s total output will have a greater advantage.

Taking Jianghuai Automobile as an example, new energy vehicles are the company's strategic core business segment. The company's mid-term target plan will reach 20% of the total sales of new energy vehicles by 2020. The iEV4 and iEV5 are Jianghuai Automobile's main pure-electric vehicles currently on sale. In 2017, iEV6 and iEV7 are expected to be launched. The company’s announcement on production and sales recently revealed that in 2016, the company sold a total of 18,400 pure-electric passenger cars, an increase of 74.59% year-on-year. According to estimates by CITIC Securities, in 2017, Jianghuai's pure electric vehicle sales target is 27,000 units. Calculated at an annual growth rate of 30%, the 2018 annual sales target for pure electric vehicles will be 35,000 units. According to the average of 3 points per vehicle, JAC will receive 105,000 points in 2018. JAC's 2018 production is expected to be about 400,000 units, reaching 8% of the requirements for points, a total of 32,000 points, its surplus points can reach more than 70,000 points, through the transaction will provide protection for the company's earnings.

The relevant person in charge of the Jianghuai Automobile told the China Securities Journal that the new management of the dual-point management is in line with JAC's own purely electric technology route, and JAC will maintain its existing strategic goals. Currently, the market structure based on the background of points is far from mature, and at the national and corporate level, it should jointly boost the expansion of new energy vehicles. “The market structure will be initially determined when the annual sales volume reaches the scale of millions of vehicles.” According to the ED, with the large-scale production of new energy vehicles, the efficiency of vehicle fuel consumption in the conventional depots is imminent.

Taking Great Wall Motors as an example, companies are still relying on the “single leg walk” of high-fuel SUV models. Without the support of new energy models, Great Wall Motor is undoubtedly carrying heavy fuel pressure. If the product line is not adjusted, a large amount of new energy negative points will be generated later. In accordance with the current product plan of Great Wall Motors, it focused its new energy points on the newly launched WEY brand. However, it is unclear whether the efficiency of the engines and vehicle fuel consumption of the WEY brand can save the Haver brand.

Changan Automobile, an independent brand leader, also bears tremendous pressure on fuel consumption. Changan Automobile's new energy sector started relatively late. Compared to the huge traditional fuel vehicle mass, its fuel consumption points and new energy points face double challenges.

Multi-segmented industries will benefit

Double-point management of the New Deal is a great test for auto companies. As new energy vehicle integration requirements increase year by year, the number of new energy passenger vehicles to be promoted from 2018 to 2020 is estimated to be 780,000, 900,000 and 1,020,000 respectively. Some analysts in the automobile industry have bluntly stated that the government should introduce a multi-city limited-line purchase-supporting policy as soon as possible so as to release more dividends and increase the market promotion of new energy vehicles.

According to industry insiders, under the New Deal, enterprises that have laid new energy vehicles ahead of schedule are expected to benefit. According to the Exposure Draft, car companies with a high proportion of new energy vehicle production as a percentage of the company’s total output will have a greater advantage. From the current stage, automakers will benefit from the higher proportion of new energy passenger vehicles, and joint venture auto makers will face certain pressure.

At the same time, due to the double-entry management of the New Deal on the car's energy density, cruising range requirements are put forward, high-energy density batteries will be the future direction of vehicle power batteries, represented by the ternary lithium battery industry chain will continue to benefit. In addition, in the context of increasingly stringent audits of various indicators, the development of the battery industry will create the birth of industrial giants, which will help the leading companies with core technologies continue to expand market share.

According to Essence Securities, lightweight lithium-ion batteries have become an important option for new energy vehicles to extend their mileage in the unlikely event that lithium-ion power density is unlikely to increase significantly. According to estimates by Essence Securities, by 2020, the market size of composite materials used in automotive lightweighting will reach 10 billion yuan.

Benefiting from the increase in pressure on the fuel consumption limit of the OEMs, related companies that have fuel-efficient technologies in the industrial chain will benefit. Take camel shares as an example. As the leader of auto-starting batteries, camel shares have long benefited from the rise in the start-stop loading rate under the pressure limit of passenger car fuel consumption. At present, the occupancy rate of the start-stop system for passenger cars in China is about 5%. It is expected that this number will increase to around 50% by 2020. The relevant person in charge of camel shares told reporters that the upgrading and transformation of the company's system diversity will enable more new energy models to be equipped with a start-stop system.