Guotai Junan's 2012 investment strategy seminar was held on the 24th of November at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Shanghai. Guo Chao Junan Institute Chief Macro Analyst Jiang Chao issued the 2012 macro strategy report, entitled “Rely on Relaxation and See Growth through Growth”. He pointed out that we found out whether it is starting from investment, consumption and export, or starting from the middle and lower reaches. Ultimately, it is based on the needs of two major heavy vehicles and real estate.
The following is a record of Jiang Chao’s report:
At this point in time, how do we look at the next year's economy? We put forward our own ideas. We believe that the policy will certainly relax and the economy will rebound. Sustained growth will also come from the economic transformation.
First of all, let us introduce our macroeconomic research framework. This is a summary of our research ideas since the beginning of this year. We have found that starting from investment, consumption and export, or starting from the middle and lower reaches, the two are ultimately the two major automotive and real estate industries. Heavy demand dominates. At the beginning of the year, many people said that our economy was a cycle of 10 years. When it came to a restart, sometimes the perspective is not the same. The conclusion is completely different. If we look at the perspective of deceleration, basically every time China slows down, we must For more than five years, if you look at deceleration, it should be that the economy in 2012 will be a bit lower than this year.
We look at traditional investment, consumption, and exports. After 2005, China's investment has driven problems. That is, investment has no obvious correlation with our economic growth. Decomposition, investment can be divided into three blocks, including infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing. Each block is about one-third to one-fourth. The overall investment and economic correlation are negative. This is very Surprised. Infrastructure investment is a significant negative correlation. Every time the economy fails, the government will surely start infrastructure investment. Such a negative correlation indicates that research on infrastructure investment itself is of little significance. Once infrastructure investment starts to rise, it often means that the economy has started to decline. The best choice at this time is to lower the position. Our manufacturing investment and economy are zero-related, and the only one that is economically related is real estate investment. Researching Chinese investment is actually sufficient as long as real estate investment is studied. It can clearly indicate the direction of the economy.
Real estate investment itself is determined by the sales volume of the real estate market. Now it has fallen. Negative growth has occurred in October. This is the biggest concern in the market, including our outlook for next year. We think that next year, the growth rate will fall from 25% to 20%. .
We make a summary and study China's investment. It is actually a study of real estate. In addition, if we look at China’s consumption, the data we usually pay attention to is mainly the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods. In October 2008, the growth rate of total social consumption began to decline. This data does not accurately depict the actual situation at that time, and retail sales above the limit The nominal growth rate has declined in the second quarter of 2008, and this data is correspondingly more accurate. We divide consumption into two parts, one is durable goods, and the other is non-durable goods. The proportion of durable goods is about 40%, but we can see that two-thirds of durable goods are cars. Therefore, we can see that China’s consumption is actually led by the automobile. Therefore, we make a summary and study that China’s consumption is actually a study of the trend of automobile growth.
In addition, we can see that in the consumer car, furniture, furniture, home appliances, the trend is the same, in fact, the living volatility trend of the housing demand is consistent, so the study of China's investment and consumption is the core concern us The two major needs of real estate and automotive. When studying exports, the core is to study the growth of the United States. In the past ten years, China’s export growth has been significantly related to the U.S. economy. If the U.S. economy is only a steady recovery in the future, it is still unable to stop China’s exports from falling. trend.
Just now we introduced it. From the perspective of domestic demand, the core is real estate and automobiles. China's economic trends and industrial trends have been exactly the same in the past 30 years. Including the economy we just talked about China’s current situation, very much like 1994, the government was greatly relaxed, there was a rebound, then it sparked a bubble in property, and the economy slowed down. In fact, this can be a comparison. In addition, the trend of our industry is actually The trend of power generation is similar. Tracking the amount of power generation can determine the trend of the economy. Including the single-month negative growth of power generation in 2008, many people think that the growth rate of the industry has not been delineated, and instead believe in power generation data. The amount of electricity generation is consistent with the growth rate of steel and cement in the midstream, and the growth rate of real estate and automobiles is undoubtedly the leading one. Therefore, in fact, from the perspective of industry, the final destination is still the automobile and real estate industries.
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