Automotive industry: second quarter decision heavy truck recovery degree time window

Although heavy truck sales have suffered year-on-year negative growth due to the high base last year, heavy-duty trucks have recovered relatively quickly in the past four months. The second quarter is the most important time window for obtaining heavy truck sales during the year. In the second quarter, high-strength credit was put in the first quarter. The pulling effect on investment and production will determine the degree of recovery of heavy trucks this year. In the second half of the year, due to the lower base last year, the year-on-year growth rate will be a natural phenomenon.

Since the beginning of this year, the growth in investment in fixed assets has been rapid, while the recovery in heavy industry production is still not obvious. With the rebound of upstream industrial product prices, the start of heavy industry industry is expected to increase, and the quarterly rebound after the economy has bottomed in the first quarter will help freight transport. The amount of recovery. If sales are represented by annual sales in March and April, which are the highest points of the year, sales this year may be only slightly down 4% from last year. If it is further expected that the investment activity in the second quarter will improve compared to the first quarter, it is likely that the sales of heavy trucks will be able to achieve the same level as last year.

Observing the data on the quantity of goods loaded on trucks, the major structural changes in the number of possessions in the past few years still occurred in the increase in the proportion of light trucks, that is, the reduction in the number of China Cards and micro-cards mainly flowed into light trucks, and the increase in the proportion of heavy trucks was not obvious. . The volume of bicycles has increased slightly in recent years, and the risk of excess inventory from heavy truck inventory has not yet emerged. However, in recent years, the average transport distance has risen significantly. The most economical way to transport long distances is to transport more cargo at one time. Helps increase the demand for heavy trucks.