Automotive industry: heavy trucks continue to recover

The rapid growth of investment in fixed assets in China. The main uses of heavy trucks are cargo transportation, auxiliary construction, and special vehicles. Therefore, the investment relationship with fixed assets is relatively close. Judging from the monthly trend in recent years, heavy truck production peaked before and after the 2008 Beijing Auto Show and began to fall back. The surge in production from March to April 2008 can be considered as the irrational growth caused by heavy-duty companies' stimulus at the time. Taking into account the profound impact of the financial crisis since the end of 2008, the decline in production in the first eight months of 2009 compared with the previous year was much smaller than expected. After emerging from the trough in early January 2009, the current heavy-duty truck market has shown a strong rebound and is full of stamina.

Since the second quarter, under the influence of construction vehicles and traction wheels, the recovery of the heavy-duty truck industry has been heating up. In particular, tractors used for road transport have seen hot markets in August and September with the economy picking up. The outstanding performance of construction vehicles in the second quarter brought surprise to the Chinese heavy truck market.

In the first half of the year, the domestic heavy truck market grew far better than expected at the beginning of the year. Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that the country’s policy support directly led to the popularity of engineering heavy trucks in March and April; after mid-to-late April, the demand for new and updated engineering heavy trucks gradually slowed down, and the heavy truck market stepped into The sales of car sales as a growth engine continued the trend of recovery. In August, the sales of heavy trucks totaled 56 800 vehicles, which represented a year-on-year increase of 5.93% and a year-on-year increase of 71.84%. Sales of tractor-trailers continued to improve.

In the short term, the heavy truck industry will also benefit from the deep changes in truck heavy trucking brought about by weight-based charges. The country’s active fiscal policy will bring about a gradual recovery of the heavy truck industry.

At present, various macroeconomic indicators show that logistics is picking up, exports are recovering, and the heavy truck industry is in a good situation. Investment opportunities in related stocks are highlighted. It is estimated that in 2009, 12.47 million vehicles will be sold in the whole industry, an increase of about 33% year-on-year. Of which: 570,000 heavy truck sales, an increase of 5.5%. With the rapid recovery of sales of heavy trucks, sales have increased slightly throughout the year, and profit growth has mainly come from the increase in gross profit margin. In 2010, the industry will fully return to normal and sales growth is expected to be around 15%, which will lead to a sustained increase in profits.