Automotive industry: First measure to stimulate the development of commercial vehicles

On May 19, 2009, the State Council held an executive meeting to study and deploy policies and measures to encourage the replacement of cars and home appliances. The meeting decided that for medium-, light-, micro-duty trucks and some medium-size passenger vehicles that meet certain service life, if they are scrapped in advance and replaced with new ones, they will receive financial subsidies. The amount of subsidies is, in principle, not higher than the single-vehicle purchase tax.

Since 2009, spurred by relevant national policies, the rapid growth of passenger vehicles, especially minivans, has given rise to a warming up of the development of the entire passenger vehicle. The situation is gratifying. Although the previously proposed "car to the countryside" policy has proposed a plan to replace light vehicles with three-wheeled agricultural vehicles and low-speed vehicles to support the development of the light-duty vehicle industry, it has benefited from the management of the vehicles, replacement costs, and subsidies. Human identity and other factors, so its actual utility is extremely limited. From January to April, commercial vehicles continued to decline.

It is in this context that the State Council executive meeting promptly put forward new stimulus measures. The areas covered here include medium and small trucks and some medium-sized passenger cars.

At present, among commercial vehicles, trucks account for more than 90%, while passenger cars account for less than 10%. Among the trucks, medium-sized vehicles accounted for 8%, light-duty vehicles accounted for 64%, mini-vehicles accounted for 22%, and the three were nearly 94%. Therefore, the relevant stimulus measures basically cover most of the trucks.

In passenger cars, the proportion of medium-sized passenger cars is only about 15%, while the light buses that account for the bulk are not included in the subsidy. Therefore, it is expected that the relevant measures will have a significantly lower utility to the passenger car industry than the truck industry. Moreover, this "replacement of the old" does not limit the identity of the redemption as "car to the countryside".

However, it should be pointed out that first, because it is a trade-in replacement, it is necessary to have old cars before you can enjoy the relevant subsidies. Secondly, although the state hopes to drive the development of related automobiles through such measures, because these models are mainly "investment products", it is appropriate to scrap ahead of schedule and buy new ones, which will directly link the car buyers to whether they have "returns". That means that if the car buyer can't find a living in the future and he can't make money, he won't have the incentive to redeem it.

After all, the proportion of the subsidy for this purchase is determined to be no more than the bicycle purchase tax for the same model. Taking a light car with a price of 100,000 yuan as an example, the subsidy will be around 10,000 yuan, and the redemption party will also need to pay 90,000 yuan for this purpose. Then he will certainly consider investment and income in full, and he will not rush out just because there is a "moderate" subsidy. After all, when the economy is in a recession, everyone is extremely cautious about spending.

Comprehensive analysis shows that although the state has introduced relevant stimulus measures for the development of commercial vehicles, it remains to be seen what its effectiveness will be.