Automotive and Parts Industry: School Bus Action Accelerates

Events: According to media reports, on March 28, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over a State Council executive meeting and reviewed and approved in principle the “Regulations on School Bus Safety Management (Draft)”. The meeting decided that after further amendments to the Bill, it will be announced by the State Council.

The current information shows that the draft clearly stipulates the government role of school bus safety management, the main responsibility of school bus service safety, school bus use requirements, and road rights protection. Combining with the state compulsory standards for the “Specialized School Bus Safety Technical Conditions” adopted earlier, we believe that the school bus service, as a government public service, has basically completed the framework design at the institutional level.

There is a large potential demand for school buses in rural areas. Compared with urban areas with better transportation infrastructure, rural areas (especially in remote mountainous areas) have particularly outstanding problems such as poor road safety and distance from school, and “school bus” security accidents also frequently occur in such areas. Relevant statistics indicate that 74% of students who died in school bus accidents in the past 5 years were rural students. In response, the Opinions clearly stipulate that measures must be taken to ensure that students get school bus services in rural areas where it is difficult to guarantee close proximity to school and public transportation cannot meet their needs. Our previous calculations show that the rural school bus market in China should be around 300,000 vehicles.

The school bus market in rural areas has started. According to statistics, there are only 29,000 school buses in China in the true sense of the word, accounting for 10.32% of primary and middle school students and children's vehicles. They also cover urban areas. School bus services in rural areas are basically blank. However, positive changes are taking place. Information from related bus companies shows that since the beginning of this year, public schools in remote areas have replaced private schools in developed regions to become school bus procurement entities. In the first two months of this year, according to the statistics of Zhongke.com, our country has sold a total of 4,577 school buses. As the start of the school bus market, we expect the school bus sales this year to reach the level of 20,000 to 25,000 vehicles. With the gradual implementation of the various policies involved in the draft, especially the financial subsidy policy, the rhythm of school bus demand release is expected to accelerate.

Financial subsidies or beyond expectations. In the current period of economic transition, various information, including government education budget commitments of 4% of GDP, indicate that the financial subsidies and scope of school bus services may be expected to exceed expectations, and the starting point of the next 200,000 urban school bus markets is worth looking forward to. of.

Investment strategy: Yutong buses with the first-mover advantage of technology and products will be debuted. In addition, investors can also focus on other trading opportunities in the passenger car segment, such as Zhongtong Bus and Jinlong Bus.