Analysis: The three major trends in the future of automotive technology

Let's make a comparison: Japan has 589 car ownership for 1,000 people, while China has 88 cars; Japan has an average of 199 cars per square kilometer, while China has only 12 cars. It can be seen from this that the potential of the Chinese automobile market is great! According to the experience of developed countries, there are two situations in which car ownership tends to be saturated: First, with the development of society, automobiles are fully popularized, the number of new car buyers no longer increases, and second, public transport is highly developed and more Conveniently, cars are no longer necessary transportation tools. For China, it will obviously take a long time for these two conditions to emerge. As for the specific growth rate of China's auto production and sales in the future, I think this depends on factors such as the speed of economic development, industrial policies, and changes in consumer psychology. However, there is no need for pessimism. We can speak with data. Last year's sales were 22 million, and this year it may reach 24,500,000. According to the annual growth rate of 9%, it will naturally be 40 million by 2020. Even if the growth rate is a discount, it can reach 35 million vehicles.

At present, the automotive industry has also encountered many constraints, such as energy shortages, traffic congestion, haze and other issues intensified, the increasingly stringent government regulations and restrictions on the purchase of the policy, does make the development of the automotive industry has encountered unprecedented challenges. However, these external factors are not insurmountable, but for enterprises that can exercise their internal strength and actively respond, the challenge is also an opportunity. Among them, the importance of controlling the core technology is becoming more and more obvious. Let's talk about my judgment on the future development trend of automotive technology:

First of all, future safety technologies will get more and more attention. Passive security is increasingly refined, active security will continue to be greatly improved, and mutual integration of passive and active security technologies will become more apparent. In the future, the automobile will continue to advance from the goal of “zero death” to “zero casualty” to the ultimate goal of “zero accident”. At the same time, the progress of smart driving technology will be faster and faster. Although full drone may take time, automatic driving under regional and partial conditions will be applied as a core safety technology. And these security technologies will be closely integrated with the progress of language recognition systems, data exchange systems, and IT network technologies.

Second, the importance of energy-saving technologies is highlighted. In fact, only one problem that can really restrict the development of automobiles in the future is energy. At present, China's oil imports have approached 60% of the red line, and the pressure for oil shortage is very high. To this end, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clearly proposed to implement a 5-liter fuel consumption regulation by 2020. This is a very stringent indicator, especially for local companies. At present, the powertrain technology of many domestic companies has yet to be improved, and new energy technologies are still in the ascendant. In addition to optimizing engines and heat-generating tanks, the potential for lightweight, electronic, and intelligent technologies in the field of fuel economy remains to be seen. More development. For example, a typical passenger car can save 7% fuel consumption as long as its weight is reduced by 10%. Therefore, in the future, OEMs will choose parts and components not only to see who is cheaper and more durable, but also to see who is lighter. In short, the energy-saving requirements are likely to bring a full range of changes to the Chinese auto industry from complete vehicles to parts and components and from vehicles to vehicles.

Third, environmental protection technology will also become a core technology that companies cannot ignore, because the pressure of pollution will make environmental protection a veto. At present, the country has already introduced material re-recycling laws. During the design process, it is necessary to consider the issue of how to split and recycle in the future. This is not only a big challenge to automakers, but also to parts manufacturers. Emission control, noise control, and the quality of air in the car will all get more attention.

Finally, the application of electronic technology in automobiles will increase geometrically. It is estimated that by 2015, an average of 40% of car costs will be used for automotive electronics. A new round of scientific and technological revolution characterized by informatization, digitization, big data, and cloud computing is on the rise, and the automobile will become one of the best carriers for applying these latest scientific and technological achievements. The in-vehicle infotainment system, car networking technology, and intelligence Technology will lead the direction of future technological development. The future automobile will present the trend of "five changes", that is, diversification of functions, integration of control, development of platforms, system networking, and technology integration.