Six major forecasts for the automotive market in the second half of 2006

In the first half of the year when the auto market is relatively hot, what will happen to the auto market in the second half of the year? Taking various factors into consideration, industry insiders predict that the overall auto market will remain optimistic in the second half of the year, and the pressure on the warehouse will likely come back in the short term, while the vehicle price is expected to decline further. However, the auto market will not reproduce the downturn as it did in 2004. Still will maintain a steady rise.

Prediction I: Lower Car Prices, Reduced Inventory

"Mondeo has cut down more than 30,000 yuan at a time, which is a blow to other brands." An industry source said without fear. "It's like a wooden barrel, a wooden barrel. If any piece of wood is short, then the water will naturally flow down."

Regarding the trend of car prices in the second half of the year, many people in the industry and distributors are unanimously saying that there will not be a big price war, but due to the impact of factors such as the low price of new cars, adequate sources of vehicles, and inventory clearance, the price cuts are still downward. The main trend for half a year.

Prediction 2: Sales Index Will Not Shrink

"China is the world's largest consumer car market. It is only a partial start-up of consumption. That amount is also incalculable." Jia Xinguang is not worried about a sharp contraction in car sales. According to his analysis, despite the decline in sales in May and June, the current auto market is relatively serious, but the warm trend will not change. Such as Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Citroen, Guangzhou Toyota, Mazda and other manufacturers, because the new car production capacity to be further improved in the second half, they all expressed confidence in the performance of the second half of the market.

From the demand side, experts believe that the decline in the growth of car sales is a normal phenomenon. According to the forecast of the State Council, sales of passenger vehicles in the second half of the year will maintain a rapid growth year-on-year, but the growth rate will fall to within 25%-30%.

Prediction 3: Economy-type protagonists in the second half of the year

Among the subdivided models, the 1.0L-1.6L sedan will become the gold displacement of China's car market, and will become the focus of growth in the second half of this year. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first five months of this year, the economical cars such as Xiali and QQ among the top 10 brands in China's sedan sales accounted for an absolute advantage. This is enough to show that economic and small-displacement cars, which are generally concerned by consumers, have become the leading force that drives China's auto market.

According to feedback from various manufacturers, in the new cars listed in the second half of this year, the displacement of most models is 1.0L-1.6L, and the price is below 150,000 yuan. In addition, new POLO, Geely Steel, Dongfeng Nissan Sylphy, Hatchback Fox and other models will also join the "small displacement" team to meet consumer demand for home.

Prediction 4: Increasing Profit Levels

China's auto industry profits have finally ended its negative growth lasting for two years. Most auto companies have shown strong profitability.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, 1,155 of the 6,315 auto makers in the country had a loss-making performance last year, with a loss of up to 20%. Statistics released by the Ministry of Commerce also show that the total profits of the entire automotive industry fell by about 17 billion yuan last year. This year, this situation has finally undergone a major change. In the first four months of this year, China's auto industry has realized a total profit of 23.251 billion yuan, an increase of 88.65%. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers therefore believes that the profitability of China's auto manufacturing industry has increased and the growth rate has been strong.

Prediction 5: More and more detailed services

"The sale of the car is only just beginning. The owner must be maintained and repaired by us. The major profits will come from here." The head of a distributor of the Generic brand began to emphasize the importance of service to all employees.

At the same time, almost all brands of car OEMs and distributors have launched a variety of service measures. Judging from the entire automotive service, the current competition, including the automotive market, has become increasingly fierce.

On the one hand, dealers can fully promote their own products; on the other hand, they also make car services more and more popular, and the positive factors in these markets must drive the development of the auto market.

Prediction 6: Structural adjustment emphasizes independent innovation

This year, China's self-owned brand companies such as Chery, Geely, Brilliance, BYD, and Great Wall have all demonstrated their vitality and achieved record-breaking sales in the first half of this year.

It is understood that during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the state will encourage enterprises to strengthen their independent innovation capabilities, cultivate their own brands, give play to the basic role of market allocation of resources and encourage fair competition, encourage mergers and acquisitions, and give full play to existing production capabilities.