China Automotive Industry Review 2007 Outlook 2008

In 2007, China's auto industry will reach one million more steps. The scale of the auto market will continue to expand in 2008.

Near the end of 2007, how to evaluate the performance of the auto market this year is a topic: a new energy car is going to market, the overcapacity is restrained, the South-South restructuring is uncertain, the self-owned brand encounters a “technical barrier,” and new products get listed. The auto market cuts prices, and so on. However, through analysis of the development situation of the Chinese automobile market in the past two years, industry professionals generally believe that from the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period from 2006 to 2010, the growth of production and sales scale is still the mainstream of the development of the automotive industry. Many experts from the China Association of Automotive Engineers, Zhang Xiaoyu, and other experts predict that after the national automobile production and sales volume exceeds 7 million units in 2006, it will reach 8.5 million units in 2007 and is expected to reach 9 million vehicles. The target of 10 million vehicles is very high. It may be achieved earlier than 2010.

According to the authoritative statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales amounted to 720,700 units and 7,271,600 units in 2006; and in the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales volume of automobiles were 8,059,400 units and 7,951,200 units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 22.25. % and 23.19%. The role of many favorable factors has enabled the Chinese auto market to easily leap to another one million steps in 2007.

Despite the brief downturn in the automobile market from 2004 to 2005, a comprehensive review of the development trajectory of the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" and the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, due to the continuous growth of China's national economy, the resident's consumption structure is composed of daily-use articles to garages. The main transition, the domestic demand for automotive products in the past five years has become a global economic phenomenon. According to Zhang Xiaozhen’s analysis, since 2001, China’s automobile production has rapidly increased from 2 million vehicles to 7.2 million in 2006, with an average annual growth rate of 24%. This is something that has never happened in the history of the development of the world’s automobile industry. In 2007, due to the relatively stable growth of China's economy, the annual gross national product growth rate is expected to reach about 11.5%; in 2007, the disposable income of urban residents will increase by about 12.5%, which is higher than the previous two years. The level of growth makes the change in consumption structure still develop in depth. In addition, the expansion of Chinese automobiles to overseas markets has also increased the number of products. In the first 10 months of this year, the total vehicle export volume was 469,000 units, while the national automobile sales volume reached 7.15 million units during the same period, and the export share reached 6.6%. In addition, due to the further intensification of market-oriented competition and the reduction of production costs, automobile prices dropped by around 5% in 2007, bringing more consumers into the ranks of car owners.

At present, China’s automobile production ranks third in the world, second only to the United States and Japan where annual production exceeds 10 million. In the automotive consumer market, although there is no authoritative organization to publish the actual vehicle number, it is in accordance with the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security. As of the end of September 2007, the number of private motor vehicles in China was 118,129,662 vehicles, an increase of 7.22% over 2006, of which private cars accounted for 61.25% of the total volume, and the number and scale of auto consumption had ranked second in the world.

Experts from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers believe that the current development of China's auto industry is in a clear upward cycle. In 2008, China's auto market will continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth. Industry experts expect that the growth rate of passenger car sales will remain at 20%; while the growth rate of commercial vehicle production and marketing is about 18%. Its basis is mainly the following aspects:

First of all, the healthy development of the national economy will be an important basis for the continuous growth of the auto market in 2008. It is expected that GDP will still maintain a high growth rate of 11% in 2008, and the country will continue to adopt the policy of further expanding domestic demand. However, the automobile still occupies an important position in expanding domestic demand and satisfying the upgrading of residents' consumption structure. The relevant research report shows that currently there are less than 50 vehicles in China, and the global average is 120, and the United States is 750. Most Chinese families do not have their own first car, so the domestic auto market has great potential for growth. In addition, as the level of manufacturing technology has increased, the cost-effectiveness of domestically-made cars has gradually emerged and will become increasingly attractive to overseas markets. These rigid demand characteristics can make the domestic auto market maintain a long-term and stable growth.
Secondly, many factors such as the rapid rise of the domestic second- and third-tier automobile market and the gradual entry of the first batch of private cars will become the most important automobile incremental market in China in 2008 and later.

Related industry sources pointed out that while there are good reasons to remain optimistic about the auto market in 2008, we must also pay attention to the impact of uncertainties on the auto industry. According to a series of policy information proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference held recently in 2008, such as “controlling the scale of investment in fixed assets” and “implementing tight monetary policy”, it will have a direct impact on the demand for commercial vehicles in China and increase the Financial constraints and financing difficulties. At the same time, the bad expectations of domestic car fuel prices will obviously have a negative impact on consumers' car enthusiasm. From this analysis, China's auto market competition in 2008 will be more intense.