2006 three trends in the automotive industry

With the advent of the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the Chinese auto industry has begun to face more opportunities and challenges: the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly issued signals of overcapacity in the auto industry, and the central government has comprehensively lifted the ban on environmentally friendly and energy-saving small-displacement vehicles. The government actively promotes the auto industry's independent innovation... All signs indicate that 2006 is a key year for the development of the automotive industry. The auto industry will set off three major changes in mergers and acquisitions, environmental protection, energy conservation and independent innovation.

Mergers and acquisitions

Within a short period of 2 months, the NDRC highlighted the “red light” on the issue of overcapacity in the automotive industry.

On January 25, 2006, Zhu Hongren, deputy director of the Economic Operation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the problem of overcapacity in seven industries such as automobiles is currently outstanding, and “this has become a serious obstacle to the improvement of the quality of economic operations. This year we must fully pay attention and resolutely contain it. This momentum."

At the end of December last year, the NDRC had twice stated that the auto industry has excess capacity. The first was the press briefing held by Liu Zhi, Director of the Industrial Policy Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, on December 21st; the other was Ma Kai, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, at the National Development and Reform Working Conference. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the production capacity of the automotive industry is currently larger than the sales of 2 million, and the production capacity under construction is still 2.2 million, and the new capacity that is being brewed and planned is 8 million. If they are completed, the production capacity is far greater than the market demand. .

Although some people in the industry questioned the data from the National Development and Reform Commission, they believe that the total capacity of the statistical industry should not be simply added to the capacity of each plant; an expert also suggested that the auto industry is actually "inefficient production capacity excess and insufficient effective production capacity." It cannot simply be stated as "overcapacity"; however, in these disputes, almost everyone agrees on the same fact: At present, domestic auto makers are uneven, and it is extremely urgent to accelerate the pace of mergers and reorganizations.

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2005 there were 145 auto vehicle manufacturers in China, 16 more than in 2004, and 536 auto-refinery depots, an increase of 20 over the previous year. However, there are only 10 vehicle companies that sell more than 100,000 vehicles; only about 30 of them sell 10,000 vehicles, accounting for about one-fifth of the total. There are also many companies selling only a few hundred vehicles throughout the year. Even zero.

The blind increase in car manufacturers is an important reason that caused the auto industry in 2005 to fall into the embarrassing situation of “increasing production without increasing revenue”. According to the statistics, in the first 10 months of 2005, the cumulative output of the automotive industry increased 9.18% year-on-year to 461.89 units, but the profits of the entire industry decreased by 36.7% year-on-year, and the loss of loss-making enterprises increased by 86.2%.

This situation has aroused the attention of a considerable number of automotive industry authorities. “The six auto companies affiliated to the SASAC—FAW, Dongfeng, Hafei, Changhe, Shenfei Hino, and Xi’an Xiwo—will face inevitable restructuring. In addition, the SASAC will promote the reorganization of central enterprises and local enterprises. The reorganization will adopt more market methods, said Bai Jinfu, deputy director of the SASAC Research Center.

In fact, as early as 2005, the central government has already begun to promote the merger and reorganization of the automotive industry. At the end of last year, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council, while presiding over the executive meeting of the State Council, deployed the restructuring of industries with excess capacity. It is required to encourage the merger and reorganization of some key national economic industries in China in accordance with market principles.

In January this year, the National Development and Reform Commission began to clean up the issued WMI (world manufacturer's code). In the list of WMI announcements to be revoked, 124 vehicle manufacturers will be permanently disqualified from production of vehicles or be disqualified.

Faced with the fact that AviChina integrated Hafei with Changhe, Changan acquired Jiangling, followed by another news that Chery wanted to acquire FAW Yangzi, FAW Group wanted to acquire Hebei Zhongxing and other series of planned mergers and acquisitions, the author expects that policy leverage and market regulation Under the circumstances, mergers and reorganizations among some auto companies will be avoided in 2006.